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 Post subject: 2018 Movie Predictions
PostPosted: Fri Jan 05, 2018 2:26 pm 
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Usual rules apply:

You need to pick the 10 films in the order you think they will placed at by the end of 31st December 2018, plus 5 "Dark Horse" picks.
"Dark Horse" picks allow you to choose 5 extra films that you are less sure of appearing in the top 10 but you can get some points if they do (e.g. It, Logan from last year).

Scoring:

Getting number 1 or number 10 dead-on gets you 13 points (each).
10 points for numbers 2-9 dead-on
7 points if your pick was only one spot away from where it ended up
5 points if it was two spots away
3 points if your pick is anywhere in the Top 10
1 point for each dark horse that makes it into the Top 10
The scoring is tabulated so that you get the SINGLE HIGHEST point value for each pick- that is, if you get number ten right, you don't get 13+3, you only get 13. This means the maximum score is 106.

Notes:

1. This is for the US domestic Box Office only. No overseas figures are included.

2. Only films which open in the US in 2018 can be included (so no Last Jedi, Jumanji etc.) You can find a list here: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/schedule/?yr=2018

3. Only takings up to the 31st December 2018 will be included (e.g. Mary Poppins Returns would only have 7 days of takings counted).

4. Entries close on 23rd January 2018. No changes or late entries will be included after this point.


Last edited by Kang the Conqueror on Fri Jan 05, 2018 2:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 05, 2018 2:32 pm 
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Results for previous years:

2017:
1. Star Wars: Episode VIII
2. Beauty and the Beast
3. Wonder Woman
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2
5. Spider-Man: Homecoming
6. It
7. Thor: Ragnarok
8. Despicable Me 3
9. Logan
10. The Fate of the Furious
11. Justice League
12. Dunkirk
13. Coco
14. The LEGO Batman Movie
15. Get Out

2016:
1. Finding Dory
2. Rogue One
3. Captain America: Civil War
4. The Secret Life of Pets
5. The Jungle Book
6. Deadpool
7. Zootopia
8. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
9. Suicide Squad
10. Dr Strange
11. Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them
12. Moana
13. Jason Bourne
14. Star Trek: Beyond
15. X-Men: Apocalypse

2015:
1. Jurassic World
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. Avengers: Age of Ultron
4. Inside Out
5. Furious 7
6. Minions
7. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2
8. The Martian
9. Cinderella
10. Spectre
11. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation
12. Pitch Perfect 2
13. Ant-Man
14. Home
15. Hotel Transylvania 2

2014:
1. Guardians of The Galaxy
2. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1
3. Captain America: The Winter Soldier
4. The LEGO Movie
5. Transformers: Age of Extinction
6. Maleficent
7. X-Men: Days of Future Past
8. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
9. Big Hero 6
10. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
11. Godzilla
12. 22 Jump Street
13. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
14. The Hobbit: There and Back Again
15. Interstellar

2013:
1. Iron Man 3
2. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
3. Despicable Me 2
4. Man of Steel
5. Monsters University
6. Frozen
7. Gravity
8. Fast & Furious 6
9. Oz: The Great and Powerful
10. Star Trek Into Darkness
11. Thor: The Dark World
12. World War Z
13. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
14. The Croods
15. The Heat


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 05, 2018 3:27 pm 
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And to get things rolling here's my first draft:

1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
3. Solo: A Star Wars Story
4. Incredibles 2
5. Deadpool 2
6. Black Panther
7. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
8. M:I 6
9. Ant-Man and the Wasp
10. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck It Ralph 2


DH: X-Men: Dark Phoenix
DH: Ready Player One
DH: Mowgli
DH: Venom
DH: Halloween

Come at me bros!

(Venom subbed in for New Mutants 12/01)


Last edited by Kang the Conqueror on Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:17 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:49 am 
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2018 is a toughy

The climax of the MCU as we know it (begins AKA Thanos finally gets off his chair), Jurassic World (whose predecessor kept Force Awakens from the top spot in 2015) and Star Wars...

The only Star Wars film with a non-December release to not take the top spot is Attack of the Clones. So, the series has a 5 out of 6 record for May releases...

Never-the-less:

1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. Solo: A Star Wars Story
3. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
4. The Incredibles 2
5. Black Panther
6. Deadpool 2
7. Ant-Man and the Wasp
8. Mulan
9. A Wrinkle in Time
10. X-Men: Dark Phoenix

DH: Mary Poppins Returns
DH: Ready Player One
DH: Mission: Impossible 6
DH: Mowgli
DH: Halloween

The mid-chart was a Marvel-fest last year and I kind of see that repeating. X-Men typically flirt with 9 or 10 down to 15, so I'll put the main series film in there. Mulan - Disney, live Action but it's no Beauty and the Beast in terms of classics which they're adapting. A Wrinkle in time and Mary Poppins 2 were a tough call but I went with the March release date, hopefully not to my folly. reserve the right to chick out. erm, update these before the cut off.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:33 am 
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Knappos wrote:
2018 is a toughy

The climax of the MCU as we know it (begins AKA Thanos finally gets off his chair), Jurassic World (whose predecessor kept Force Awakens from the top spot in 2015) and Star Wars...

The only Star Wars film with a non-December release to not take the top spot is Attack of the Clones. So, the series has a 5 out of 6 record for May releases...

Never-the-less:

1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. Solo: A Star Wars Story
3. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
4. The Incredibles 2
5. Black Panther
6. Deadpool 2
7. Ant-Man and the Wasp
8. Mulan
9. A Wrinkle in Time
10. X-Men: Dark Phoenix

DH: Mary Poppins Returns
DH: Ready Player One
DH: Mission: Impossible 6
DH: Mowgli
DH: Halloween

The mid-chart was a Marvel-fest last year and I kind of see that repeating. X-Men typically flirt with 9 or 10 down to 15, so I'll put the main series film in there. Mulan - Disney, live Action but it's no Beauty and the Beast in terms of classics which they're adapting. A Wrinkle in time and Mary Poppins 2 were a tough call but I went with the March release date, hopefully not to my folly. reserve the right to chick out. erm, update these before the cut off.


Is Mulan still to be released in 2018 do we think? It still has that officially but as it hasn't begun filming yet I am wondering if 2019 is more likely?

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:30 am 
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hammard wrote:
Knappos wrote:
2018 is a toughy

The climax of the MCU as we know it (begins AKA Thanos finally gets off his chair), Jurassic World (whose predecessor kept Force Awakens from the top spot in 2015) and Star Wars...

The only Star Wars film with a non-December release to not take the top spot is Attack of the Clones. So, the series has a 5 out of 6 record for May releases...

Never-the-less:

1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. Solo: A Star Wars Story
3. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
4. The Incredibles 2
5. Black Panther
6. Deadpool 2
7. Ant-Man and the Wasp
8. Mulan
9. A Wrinkle in Time
10. X-Men: Dark Phoenix

DH: Mary Poppins Returns
DH: Ready Player One
DH: Mission: Impossible 6
DH: Mowgli
DH: Halloween

The mid-chart was a Marvel-fest last year and I kind of see that repeating. X-Men typically flirt with 9 or 10 down to 15, so I'll put the main series film in there. Mulan - Disney, live Action but it's no Beauty and the Beast in terms of classics which they're adapting. A Wrinkle in time and Mary Poppins 2 were a tough call but I went with the March release date, hopefully not to my folly. reserve the right to chick out. erm, update these before the cut off.


Is Mulan still to be released in 2018 do we think? It still has that officially but as it hasn't begun filming yet I am wondering if 2019 is more likely?


http://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/disn ... ke-9218874

Looks like it has been bumped to late 2019.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:11 pm 
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Right, I will revise that to...

1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. Solo: A Star Wars Story
3. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
4. The Incredibles 2
5. Black Panther
6. Deadpool 2
7. Ant-Man and the Wasp
8. Mowgli
9. A Wrinkle in Time
10. X-Men: Dark Phoenix

DH: Mary Poppins Returns
DH: Ready Player One
DH: Mission: Impossible 6
DH: The New Mutants
DH: Halloween


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:25 pm 
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Doesn’t seem to get any easier does it? I remember last year thinking the year before was the hardest to figure out, and then looking at the new year’s slate thinking “Damn! This year is gonna be even tougher!” And history repeats itself yet again. Though at least in this year’s offerings the No.1 slot is pretty much a sure thing. Everything after that however? That’s when the waters muddy somewhat.

So no brainer that Avengers is No.1, but who for the number two slot? Will Solo suffer from the controversy of The Last Jedi’s mixed reception from the fans? Or even that of it’s own troubled production? Or worse yet, could Star Wars fatigue set in with less than six months between releases? After all the dust will hardly have settled on TLJ’s run by the time it leaps from the starters gate. Then there is also the issue of whether this is a film people really want to see? Is a Han Solo prequel necessary?

Then we have some much belated sequels on the live action (don’t want to get stung by one of those again) and animated front from Disney, Spielberg tackling an 80’s nostalgia packed sci-fi fest that could quite literally blow our tiny little minds. And then there’s that minor issue of dinosaurs running about and causing havoc again. Let alone Marvel’s other superhero output other than the new Avengers, not to mention a couple of X universe movies. How are we gonna fit it all into a mere 15 slots?

Will have to ponder on this some more.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:43 pm 
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Okay, here’s a first draft:

1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. Solo: A Star Wars Story
3. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
4. The Incredibles 2
5. Black Panther
6. Mulan
7. Deadpool 2
8. Ant-Man and the Wasp
9. X-Men: Dark Phoenix
10. Ready Player One

DH. Mary Poppins Returns
DH. Mowgli
DH. A Wrinkle in Time
DH. Aquaman
DH. The Shape of Water


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:55 pm 
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TALON wrote:
Okay, here’s a first draft:

1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. Solo: A Star Wars Story
3. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
4. The Incredibles 2
5. Black Panther
6. Mulan
7. Deadpool 2
8. Ant-Man and the Wasp
9. X-Men: Dark Phoenix
10. Ready Player One

DH. Mary Poppins Returns
DH. Mowgli
DH. A Wrinkle in Time
DH. Aquaman
DH. The Shape of Water


See my post above about Mulan and The Shape of Water is a 2017 release.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:58 pm 
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Kang the Conqueror wrote:
TALON wrote:
Okay, here’s a first draft:

1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. Solo: A Star Wars Story
3. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
4. The Incredibles 2
5. Black Panther
6. Mulan
7. Deadpool 2
8. Ant-Man and the Wasp
9. X-Men: Dark Phoenix
10. Ready Player One

DH. Mary Poppins Returns
DH. Mowgli
DH. A Wrinkle in Time
DH. Aquaman
DH. The Shape of Water


See my post above about Mulan and The Shape of Water is a 2017 release.



Darn it, that’ll be more pondering required then.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 5:59 pm 
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Alright, here’s a second draft:

1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. Solo: A Star Wars Story
3. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
4. The Incredibles 2
5. Black Panther
6. Deadpool 2
7. Ant-Man and the Wasp
8. Wreck It Ralph 2
9. X-Men: Dark Phoenix
10. Ready Player One


DH. Mary Poppins Returns
DH. Mowgli
DH. A Wrinkle in Time
DH. Aquaman
DH. Fantastic Beasts 2

I bet there’ll still be some random movie that swoops right in under our radar out of nowhere and scuppers everybody.

:hitthetable:


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:43 pm 
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1. Avengers: Infinity Wars
2. Solo: A Star Wars Story
3. Jurassic World
4. Black Panther
5. Deadpool
6. Fantastic Beasts
7. Ant Man & Wasp
8. Incredibles 2
9. Tomb Raider
10. Mission Impossible

DH1 Ready Player One
DH2 Alita: Battle Angel
DH3 XMen Dark Phoenix
DH4 Jungle Book
DH5 Aqua Man


Last edited by davevank on Wed Jan 10, 2018 6:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 6:04 pm 
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Hmmmm, forgot about Alita: Battle Angel, looks good from the trailer and could be at least DH worthy, damn, might need to ponder some more darnit! :hitthetable:


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 6:19 pm 
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davevank wrote:
1. Avengers: Infinity Wars
2. Solo: A Star Wars Story
3. Jurassic World
4. Black Panther
5. Deadpool
6. Fantastic Beasts
7. Ant Man & Wasp
8. Incredibles 2
9. Tomb Raider
10. Mission Impossible

DH1 Ready Player One
DH2 Alita: Battle Angel
DH3 XMen Dark Phoenix
DH4 Jungle Bush
DH5 Aqua Man


Is your DH4 the porn remake?


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 6:24 pm 
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Kang the Conqueror wrote:
davevank wrote:
1. Avengers: Infinity Wars
2. Solo: A Star Wars Story
3. Jurassic World
4. Black Panther
5. Deadpool
6. Fantastic Beasts
7. Ant Man & Wasp
8. Incredibles 2
9. Tomb Raider
10. Mission Impossible

DH1 Ready Player One
DH2 Alita: Battle Angel
DH3 XMen Dark Phoenix
DH4 Jungle Bush
DH5 Aqua Man


Is your DH4 the porn remake?


:) Corrected


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:22 pm 
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Fox are shuffling some movies around

"Gambit" is moving from Feb 14 2019 to June 7 2019

But of more interest

Deadpool2 is moving from Feb 14 2018 to May 18

If you have "New Mutants" (Knappos) that moves from April 13 2018 to Feb 22 2019

http://deadline.com/2018/01/deadpool-2- ... 202241062/


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:14 am 
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Spotted that this morning. I will deliberate over what to replace it with


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:48 pm 
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1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. Solo: A Star Wars Story
3. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
4. The Incredibles 2
5. Black Panther
6. Deadpool 2
7. Ant-Man and the Wasp
8. Mowgli
9. A Wrinkle in Time
10. X-Men: Dark Phoenix

DH. Mary Poppins Returns
DH. Ready Player One
DH. Mission: Impossible 6
DH. Red Sparrow
DH. Halloween


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PostPosted: Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:20 pm 
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And I am second guessing those again already. Grrrrr.


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 14, 2018 3:25 pm 
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Also forgot Avengers was out in May not Christmas, so yeah, Solo might be best moving back to December for a number of reasons. Is there a big Christmas season movie everyone is waiting for this year? If not Solo should definitely grab that slot while it is relatively quiet.


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 14, 2018 3:45 pm 
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Okay, this is the third and final draft. Weirdly in previous years I have chosen my list and stuck to my guns, but this year I think I have ADHD or something. Always something new and interesting that I had forgotten about or not even thought of before, should prove an interesting year. Also will my latest list do better than my first stab at it?:

1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. Solo: A Star Wars Story
3. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
4. The Incredibles 2
5. Black Panther
6. Deadpool 2
7. Ant-Man and the Wasp
8. Wreck It Ralph 2
9. X-Men: Dark Phoenix
10. Ready Player One


DH. Alita: Battle Angel
DH. Mowgli
DH. A Wrinkle in Time
DH. Aquaman
DH. Fantastic Beasts 2


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 14, 2018 9:07 pm 
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Wasn't originally going to join n but decided to post quickly anyway:

1 Avengers: Infinity War $500,000,000.00
2 Solo A Star Wars Story $475,000,000.00
3 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom $450,000,000.00
4 The Incredibles 2 $350,000,000.00
5 Deadpool 2 $340,000,000.00
6 Ready Player One $295,000,000.00
7 Black Panther $250,000,000.00
8 Venom $220,000,000.00
9 Dr Seuss The Grinch $200,000,000.00
10 Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald $210,000,000.00

DH1 Mamma Mia 2: Here We Go Again $150,000,000.00
DH2 A Wrinkle In Time $150,000,000.00
DH3 Antman and The Wasp $145,000,000.00
DH4 Wreck-It Ralph 2 $135,000,000.00
DH5 Aquaman $125,000,000.00

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:28 pm 
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Wouldn't be the same if you didn't play, Hammard


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:58 pm 
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My first attempt at this. This is going to be a hard year. Fully expecting to come last this year.
The middle and bottom is a mess. And Dark Horses don't cover everything. I need Dark Horses for the Dark Horses.

1. Avengers Infinity War
2. Ready Player One - this may move down. End of March, then April, potentially no opposition. If it strikes a nerve, it can go this high, otherwise this could bomb. I don't think it will be middling.
3. Black Panther
4. Fantastic Beasts - Crimes of Grindleward.
5. Solo - a Star Wars story. This could go any way. It all depends on word of mouth after opening week-end. Also the crazy move to summer blockbuster season. Also see the Deadpool note.
6. Jurassic World 2
7. Deadpool - aargh. This move to this date is a killer. Its going to affect, and be affected by, the Infinity War tail-off Then Solo the following week.
8. The Incredibles 2. Totally unsure of this. To late a sequel? Summer coming down with Superhero movies. Yet there is not much animation.
9. Mission Impossible 6 - interest on seeing if the mustache was worth the money might boost this higher.
10. A Wrinkle in Time - may move to a Dark Horse

Dark Horses
DH1 - Alita Battle Angel
DH2 - X-Men - Dark Phoenix
DH3 - Mortal Engines - another hard one to call. It should look spectacular. Almost too late in the year. As its not Jackson directing I doubt it would get the opening mega Christmas week-end that Star Wars got the last few years, or that the WETA/Wingnut Hobbit/LOTR films got.
DH4 - Ant Man and the Wasp - yup. A Dark Horse It lost the fight for 10th place.
DH5 - Wreck-It Ralph 2


Honourable mentions
- Pacific Rim 2
- The Predator - aargh another that might do really well.If Shane Black gets the action and nostalgia right. But I have heard nothing so maybe the studio is not all that confident
- Aquaman - Far to late in the year to make it in, but if its good, could make it in outside the window.
- Mary Poppins - ditto for Aquaman. If this had been released at any other time of the year would have been in a top 3 spot


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:36 pm 
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Basileus wrote:
DH3 - Mortal Engines - another hard one to call. It should look spectacular. Almost too late in the year. As its not Jackson directing I doubt it would get the opening mega Christmas week-end that Star Wars got the last few years, or that the WETA/Wingnut Hobbit/LOTR films got.



One issue that I think will affect it is the books simply aren't that well known in the USA. The movies that have seen big success have seen big book sales before and in the lead up. Currently it has 16K ratings on Goodreads. By comparison Divergent has 2.3m at the moment. Ready Player One has almost 500k. The marketing will have to do a lot of heavy lifting.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:56 pm 
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Don't really expect it to do much, but dark horses really should be dark horses, most of mine are potential top tens that I can't fit in. This is one of my few out there choices for this year.

Fully expecting a flashy and decent trailer with Jackson's name all over it - From the team that brought you LOTRs, King Kong and The Hobbit. Going to be no mention that it's directed by the beacon guard who let Pippin slip by him who then lit said beacon.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:38 pm 
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Yeah it could still do well if it manages Deadpool style interest from clever advertising, just was surprised myself to discover it wasn't as widely known (given my own huge fannishness about it).

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:39 am 
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Update. And this has never mucked me up in the past.

1. Avengers Infinity War
2. Ready Player One - this may move down. End of March, then April, potentially no opposition. If it strikes a nerve, it can go this high, otherwise this could bomb. I don't think it will be middling.
3. Black Panther
4. Fantastic Beasts - Crimes of Grindleward.
5. Solo - a Star Wars story. This could go any way. It all depends on word of mouth after opening week-end. Also the crazy move to summer blockbuster season. Also see the Deadpool note.
6. Jurassic World 2
7. Deadpool - aargh. This move to this date is a killer. Its going to affect, and be affected by, the Infinity War tail-off Then Solo the following week.
8. The Incredibles 2. Totally unsure of this. To late a sequel? Summer coming down with Superhero movies. Yet there is not much animation.
9. Mission Impossible 6 - interest on seeing if the mustache was worth the money might boost this higher.
10. Ant Man and the Wasp - back in. Michael Douglas aside, it's the first after Infinity War.

Dark Horses
DH1 - Venom. Rumours are starting to circulate of a Peter Parker presence. If true, and the Symbiot gets introduced in Infinity War, then all bets are off. Still highly unlikely, but enough to get it a Dark Horse place.
DH2 - X-Men - Dark Phoenix
DH3 - Mortal Engines - another hard one to call. It should look spectacular. Almost too late in the year. As its not Jackson directing I doubt it would get the opening mega Christmas week-end that Star Wars got the last few years, or that the WETA/Wingnut Hobbit/LOTR films got.
DH4 - A Wrinkle in Time.
DH5 - Wreck-It Ralph 2


Honourable mentions
- Alita Battle Angel. Pushed out of the Dark Horses. This could bit me, but despite the behind the scenes talent, those eyes and the GITS performance gives me pause on Anime conversions in the US market.
- Pacific Rim 2
- The Predator - aargh another that might do really well.If Shane Black gets the action and nostalgia right. But I have heard nothing so maybe the studio is not all that confident
- Aquaman - Far to late in the year to make it in, but if its good, could make it in outside the window.
- Mary Poppins - ditto for Aquaman. If this had been released at any other time of the year would have been in a top 3 spot


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:32 am 
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Final call for entries, deadline today.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 7:46 pm 
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http://variety.com/2018/film/news/black ... 202676677/

Black Panther tracking at $100 - 120m for opening (four day) weekend.


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