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 Post subject: 2020 Movie Predictions
PostPosted: Sun Jan 05, 2020 5:07 pm 
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Usual rules apply:

You need to pick the 10 films in the order you think they will placed at by the end of 31st December 2020, plus 5 "Dark Horse" picks.
"Dark Horse" picks allow you to choose 5 extra films that you are less sure of appearing in the top 10 but you can get some points if they do (e.g. Joker from last year).

Scoring:

Getting number 1 or number 10 dead-on gets you 13 points (each).
10 points for numbers 2-9 dead-on
7 points if your pick was only one spot away from where it ended up
5 points if it was two spots away
3 points if your pick is anywhere in the Top 10
1 point for each dark horse that makes it into the Top 10
The scoring is tabulated so that you get the SINGLE HIGHEST point value for each pick- that is, if you get number ten right, you don't get 13+3, you only get 13. This means the maximum score is 106.

Notes:

1. This is for the US domestic Box Office only. No overseas figures are included.

2. Only films which open in the US in 2020 can be included. You can find a list here: https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/rele ... edule/2020

3. Only takings up to the 31st December 2020 will be included.

4. Entries close on 16th January 2020. No changes or late entries will be included after this point.


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 05, 2020 5:13 pm 
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Results for previous years:

2019:

1. Avengers: Endgame
2. The Lion King
3. Toy Story 4
4. Frozen II
5. Captain Marvel
6. Star Wars Episode IX: The Rise of Skywalker
7. Spider-Man: Far from Home
8. Aladdin
9. Joker
10. It Chapter Two
11. Jumanji: The Next Level
12. Us
13. Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw
14. John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum
15. How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

2018:
1. Black Panther
2. Avengers: Infinity War
3. Incredible 2
4. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
5. Deadpool 2
6. Dr Seuss' The Grinch
7. Mission Impossible: Fallout
8. Ant-Man and the Wasp
9. Solo
10. Venom
11. A Star is Born
12. Aquaman
13. Bohemian Rhapsody
14. A Quiet Place
15. Ralph Breaks the Internet


2017:
1. Star Wars: Episode VIII
2. Beauty and the Beast
3. Wonder Woman
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2
5. Spider-Man: Homecoming
6. It
7. Thor: Ragnarok
8. Despicable Me 3
9. Logan
10. The Fate of the Furious
11. Justice League
12. Dunkirk
13. Coco
14. The LEGO Batman Movie
15. Get Out

2016:
1. Finding Dory
2. Rogue One
3. Captain America: Civil War
4. The Secret Life of Pets
5. The Jungle Book
6. Deadpool
7. Zootopia
8. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
9. Suicide Squad
10. Dr Strange
11. Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them
12. Moana
13. Jason Bourne
14. Star Trek: Beyond
15. X-Men: Apocalypse

2015:
1. Jurassic World
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. Avengers: Age of Ultron
4. Inside Out
5. Furious 7
6. Minions
7. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2
8. The Martian
9. Cinderella
10. Spectre
11. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation
12. Pitch Perfect 2
13. Ant-Man
14. Home
15. Hotel Transylvania 2

2014:
1. Guardians of The Galaxy
2. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1
3. Captain America: The Winter Soldier
4. The LEGO Movie
5. Transformers: Age of Extinction
6. Maleficent
7. X-Men: Days of Future Past
8. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
9. Big Hero 6
10. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
11. Godzilla
12. 22 Jump Street
13. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
14. The Hobbit: There and Back Again
15. Interstellar


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:08 am 
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This year has me flummoxed. IT's almost an MCU rest year and after the crescendo of last year, I don't think they'll take top. Also, Disney had 70%/80% top ten dominance, but will they repeat it. I wouldn't bet on it, but in a less certain year, they have a lot on the schedule. Maybe as much as 60% Disney this time?

I do think there will be a surprise up top and that this is a far, far harder year to call than perhaps the last two or three.

1. Onward
2. Wonder Woman 1984
3. The Eternals
4. Black Widow
5. Raya and the Last Dragon
6. Soul
7. Minions: The Rise of Gru
8. Ghostbusters: Afterlife
9. Fast and Furious 9
10. No Time to Die

DH. Godzilla vs Kong
DH. Tenet
DH. Top Gun: Maverick
DH. Mulan
DH. Venom 2*

* There's a Sony spot in October for untitled Marvel Sequel. The first one did inexplicably well, and I would anticipate a repeat. Although, the release date isn't confirmed so this could be a dud nomination.

That's likely to be my 15. The order is likely to change before 16th.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:42 am 
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So my first go at this, Im not sure if I am picking films that will do well or films that I just like .. Think The Eternals could be lowest grossing Marvel film to date but still a big winner


1. Black Widow
2. Top Gun Maverick
3. Fast and Furious 9
4. Wonder Woman 1984
5. Onward
6. The Eternals
7. Venom 2
8. GhostBusters Afterlife
9. Tenet
10. Minions Rise of Gru

Dark Horse

Mulan
Bad Boys for Life
Artemis Fowl
Godzilla V King
Dune

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Last edited by Mr Cairo on Mon Jan 06, 2020 5:52 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:23 pm 
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Mr Cairo wrote:
So my first go at this, Im not sur if I am picking films that will do well or films that I just like .. Think The Eternals could be lowest grossing Marvel film to date but still a big winner


1. Black Widow
2. Top Gun Maverick
3. Fast and Furious 9
4. Wonder Woman 1984
5. Onward
6. The Eternals
7. Venom 2
8. GhostBusters Afterlife
9. Mulan
10. Minions Rise of Gru

Dark Horse

Bad Boys for Life
Artemis Fowl
Bill and Ted Face The Music
Godzilla V King
Dune


This is a very respectable list IMHO. Crucially it has 15 films that are all still set to be released in 2020 which isn't a given.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:29 pm 
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Quick ruling on 1917. It is on The Numbers list for its wide release on 10th Jan so if people want to include it they are welcome. I don't expect it to have a monster opening.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:38 pm 
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I can't remember a January release which has made it into the top ten in the years I researched when I first played this game and took it far too seriously back in the SFX days.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:28 pm 
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Just for the lols here is a trailer for a film that some of us had down as a dark horse for 2018!



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:35 pm 
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Knappos wrote:
I can't remember a January release which has made it into the top ten in the years I researched when I first played this game and took it far too seriously back in the SFX days.


We are missing the Christmas releases that legged it out from our figures. There are films that make money in January so it's not a barren wasteland where no film can thrive.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:15 pm 
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Kang the Conqueror wrote:
Just for the lols here is a trailer for a film that some of us had down as a dark horse for 2018!




That looks .... well not that great TBH,

Hoping to see 1917 next week, Is Nolans Tenet out this year I missed it on the list

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:08 pm 
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This is going to be tough, I don't see anything that's obviously going to be the biggest film of the year, and many films that are likely to close at around $150M-$200M

"Minions" bothers me, Illumination haven't been doing great of recent and I can see this either doing $300M or $150M. "Mulan" is another Disney, March release and Dumbo did for me last year.

So here's my first guess

1. "Wonder Woman 1984"
2. "No Time To Die"
3. "Black Widow"
4. "Fast & Furious 9"
5. "Birds of Prey"
6. "Reya & the Last Dragon"
7. "Mulan"
8. "Venom 2"
9. "Minions: Rise of Gru"
10. "Jungle Cruise"

DH1 "Godzilla v Kong"
DH2 "Ghostbusters: Afterlife"
DH3 "Tenet"
DH4 "Top Gun: Maverick"
DH5 "Bill & Ted"


Last edited by davevank on Tue Jan 07, 2020 3:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:10 pm 
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Mr Cairo wrote:
Kang the Conqueror wrote:
Just for the lols here is a trailer for a film that some of us had down as a dark horse for 2018!




That looks .... well not that great TBH,

Hoping to see 1917 next week, Is Nolans Tenet out this year I missed it on the list


Yes, 17th July.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 06, 2020 5:51 pm 
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Kang the Conqueror wrote:
Mr Cairo wrote:
Kang the Conqueror wrote:
Just for the lols here is a trailer for a film that some of us had down as a dark horse for 2018!




That looks .... well not that great TBH,

Hoping to see 1917 next week, Is Nolans Tenet out this year I missed it on the list


Yes, 17th July.


Changed my List

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:52 pm 
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Kang the Conqueror wrote:
We are missing the Christmas releases that legged it out from our figures. There are films that make money in January so it's not a barren wasteland where no film can thrive.


Oh yeah, That's where Aquaman, both Jumanji's and a bunch of other films released in December take a chunk of their money the year after. Avatar the biggest example perhaps. But their January cash doesn't count in the context of the game, and their presence in theatres (and people who didn't go to the cinema in the holidays catching up on them, maybe?) makes it all the harder for a January release to compete - in the context of this game...

Going back to 2010, the best position a Jan release, in the context of this game, has achieved is 20.

Not that it is impossible, just Awards season brings a lot of attention of other films, and that with the December carry overs makes it very hard for a 'big' January release to take chart topping money.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:18 pm 
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1. Wonder Woman 1984
2. Black Widow
3. No Time To Die
4. Eternals
5. Minions: The Rise of Gru
6. Mulan
7. Soul
8. Tenet
9. Venom 2
10. Birds of Prey

DH. Fast & Furious 9
DH. Onward
DH. Raya and the Last Dragon
DH. Top Gun: Maverick
DH: Dune


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:57 am 
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Okay, so let's have a first stab at this. Interestingly like I always say, this will be a difficult year for movie predictions, but for totally different reasons to the previous years, the last couple of years the slates have been so chock full of potential blockbusters and sleeper hits, that there just haven't been enough slots for all the movies you'd like to feature. Here it is quite the opposite of that, just no clear front runners and all of a bit of a muddle after the reliable domination of both Star Wars and Marvel and to a lesser extent DC movies. It's all a bit up in the air this year though. Lets see what I can come up with.

This list is likely to change a lot with my mood, nothing really cast in iron in my mind right now.


1, Wonder Woman: 1984
2, Onward
3, Black Widow
4, No Time to Die
5, Mulan
6, Eternals
7, Minions: The Rise of Gru
8, Venom 2
9, Birds of Prey
10 Tenet



DH, Fast & Furious 9
DH, Ghostbusters: Afterlife
DH Godzilla vs. Kong
DH, A Quiet Place 2
DH, Top Gun: Maverick


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:51 pm 
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Switching mine up. Probably not for the last time because I just can't decide. Normally I can whittle a list down to, say, 11 or 12 and choose a couple of the to relegate to Dark Horses and then pick 3 more dark horses.

This year, my normal 11 or 12 is 20. so I've got to ditch 5 and then squeeze all the remaining 15 in.

Yet, as much as I rationally see this year as a more open field than last, I can't quite convince myself that half the top ten will be Disney related, but which ones.

Anyway, revised list

1. Onward
2. Wonder Woman
3. Black Widow
4. Raya and the Last Dragon
5. The Eternals
6. Soul
7. Ghostbusters: Afterlife
8. No Time to Die
9. Venom 2
10. Tenet

DH. Jungle Cruise
DH. Mulan
DH. Top Gun: Maverick
DH. Fast and Furious 9
DH. Godzilla vs Kong

I can't make my mind up about Mulan. Last year Disney put out Dumbo in March and it didn't do so well. But in 2015 Cinderella got to 9 and Beauty and the Beast was second in 2017, with March releases.

Anyway, ramble ramble ramble, probably at least one more draft in the next week.

It is a real second guessing kind of year.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:07 pm 
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Right, last revision.

1. Wonder Woman 1984 (joining the bandwagon)
2. Black Widow
3. The Eternals
4. Onward
5. Raya and the Last Dragon
6. Minions: The Rise of Gru
7. Ghostbusters: Afterlife
8. Tenet
9. No Time to Die
10. Venom 2

DH - Fast and Furious 9
DH - Godzilla vs Kong
DH - Jungle Cruise
DH - Mulan
DH - Top Gun

And that's it. I mean it this time. Unless I decide to swap Venom and F&F 9.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2020 1:48 pm 
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Dammit Knappos, now you've made my resolve to stick with what I originally put, buckle. That and seeing the IMAX special look at Tenet the other night at the cinema, I think that could be big, but not quite sure how big, but I was certainly intrigued by it, enough at least to rethink my position on it. Okay let's shake things up a little....


1, Wonder Woman: 1984
2, Onward
3, Black Widow
4, No Time to Die
5, Mulan
6, Eternals
7, Minions: The Rise of Gru
8, Tenet
9, Venom 2
10 Ghostbusters: Afterlife


DH, Fast & Furious 9
DH, Birds of Prey
DH Godzilla vs. Kong
DH, A Quiet Place 2
DH, Top Gun: Maverick


....and I'm done.

....I think......?


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2020 5:13 pm 
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No more rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:34 pm 
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Oops, apologies, didn't notice I'd done it after the deadline.

:redface:


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:49 pm 
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TALON wrote:
Oops, apologies, didn't notice I'd done it after the deadline.

:redface:


Are you happy with the previous one?


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:56 pm 
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I could stick with that, I think my latest arrangement feels more informed, but if you want to be a stickler for the rules I can revert. I thought we had until the end of the month, hadn't clocked that it was earlier. My bad.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:23 am 
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Im just sticking with my gut and going with my first choices

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:16 am 
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TALON wrote:
I could stick with that, I think my latest arrangement feels more informed, but if you want to be a stickler for the rules I can revert. I thought we had until the end of the month, hadn't clocked that it was earlier. My bad.


No skin off my nose either way if no-one else minds.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:03 pm 
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No objection from me.

I went with Tenet based purely on my reaction to the trailer. Interstellar and Dunkirk made the teens I think in terms of this competition's cut off, so Inception aside, Nolan hasn't been in the top ten a whole lot without Batman. However, like I said, there's Inception and the Tenet trailer was very reminiscent of that, so that made up my mind about that.

I am far, far, far less confident about leaving Soul out, but I felt I had to choose between Soul and Onward (kind of like Inside Out and The Good Dinosaur) and went with the one which doesn't sound like a repaint on Coco. Not that they don't both sound a little like that.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:49 pm 
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Drawing a veil over Birds of Prey here's the first real contender:

https://variety.com/2020/film/box-offic ... 203503365/


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:00 pm 
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Kang the Conqueror wrote:
Drawing a veil over Birds of Prey here's the first real contender:

https://variety.com/2020/film/box-offic ... 203503365/



I never trust this tracking stuff seem to recall Birds of Prey was tracking for 50 mill and didn't make 33

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:36 pm 
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Mr Cairo wrote:
Kang the Conqueror wrote:
Drawing a veil over Birds of Prey here's the first real contender:

https://variety.com/2020/film/box-offic ... 203503365/



I never trust this tracking stuff seem to recall Birds of Prey was tracking for 50 mill and didn't make 33


I would guess that Onward has the potential to surprise on the upside and is likely to be leggier. With hindsight DC made a number of unforced errors with BoP and the under performance isn't really surprising.


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:34 am 
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Cheers for letting us keep my final choices guys,

:thumbs:

Have been away a bit this month, crazy busy at work. Yeah, looks like we have our first cinematic casualty of the year with BoP, a pity as it wasn't half bad, but then it wasn't great either.


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:35 pm 
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Kang the Conqueror wrote:
Drawing a veil over Birds of Prey here's the first real contender:

https://variety.com/2020/film/box-offic ... 203503365/


They'll want more than a $45M opening weekend to make the top ten. Last five years, you've needed an opening weekend of $61M plus to get a top ten run in. These projections are often off, so you never know but at a predicted $45M, I'm a bit relieved I moved Onward down in my revised nominations. But, it also makes me wonder - I felt I had to choose between Onward and Soul, did I make the right choice....?


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